🏆 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP 2025 Picks, Preview

ALL CAPS so you know it's a serious event...

Last week was a pretty epic week of golf betting. We had two PGA events (plus LIV and a bunch of other events) both of which were thrilling in their own sort of way. Russell Henley gritted his way to a fifth PGA win, outlasting Collin Morikawa who again forgot that he needed to sink a putt or two before getting into the clubhouse on Sunday.

I won’t lie. Henley’s win put a chink in my PLAYERS plans because my plan was to mortgage it on Henley. His long game has always been excellent (well, precise anyway) but with his newfound aura around the greens you could feel the win coming. Of course, I waited one week too long and missed out so now I’m stuck in limbo, without a horse to latch onto. Luckily the field is massive this week and there is no shortage of guys to pivot to.

Puerto Rico was a money maker for me as Davis Riely ended up paying off each-ways in the first round leader market at 150-1 — and on a top 12 and (most of) a top 8 in the outright markets. It was a massive sweat since he started the first seven holes at +2 on Sunday. The opening prices I got meant the cashed at 40-1 and 30-1 and since I was so overweight, it ended up being a solid week.

Things that stood out last week.

Sepp Straka

I won’t bury the lead here. I don’t know how you go into this week’s event without a piece of Straka —assuming you can get 40-1 or better. Another top 5 finish last week and he’s gaining big on the greens and approach again. Sawgrass is an excellent setup.

Jason Day and Keegan Bradley

A couple of veterans getting it together just in time for Sawgrass? Bradley had an epic Sunday while Day sort of came out of nowhere and did his usual up and down thing on approach, but also sunk a bunch of putts. Of the two, I trust Bradley more since he’s only a few months removed from a playoff win and is striking it better.

Matti Schmid

I know, what a random name to bring up. Schmid is becoming a kind of alternate event wizard, though. T12, T11 and now T6 in his last three visits to Corales and Puerto Rico, and with Corales coming up, I just thought I’d point it out. A top-20 bet there will likely be prudent.

Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala

They all missed the cut at API and are now available at massive odds. Not that I am planning on having any exposure, but it’s fun to point out how big their odds have risen.

PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

Hideki Matsuyama

• +2800 outright

This does look like an excellent setup for Matsuyama to potentially bag his first PLAYERS win. The Japanese Masters winner already has a win on the season at the Sentry and enters this week with his short game gaining him 4.0+ strokes in three of his last four starts, and looking primed as ever.

The ball-striking has taken a step back on the stat sheet but it’s not something I ever worry about too much with Hideki—unless there is an injury involved. He’s proven to be a player capable of spiking on approach pretty much at will and his improvement off the tee last week where he gained strokes for the first time in four starts was a good sign.

With the wind potentially up this weekend, Matsuyama’s experience on Sawgrass—four top 10s across his last seven starts —and his great tee-to-green game should take centre stage. I’d have no problem playing him down to +2500 this season with +500 favorite Scottie Scheffler still not clicking on all cylinders

Patrick Cantlay

• +3000 Each-Way Top 8 (bet365)

I get the aversion to playing a guy like Cantlay at these bigger events since you know, he never wins, but as we saw with Henley last week—who himself was on three years+ without a win—guys who don’t win stay non-winners until one day…they actually win.

That’s a convoluted way of saying Cantlay—who also last won in 2022 at the BMW—will eventually find the winner’s circle again on the PGA and his odds this week aren’t offensive. Some may suggest he needs to win a smaller event just to get the monkey off his back at this point, but Cantlay’s record is full of wins against stronger fields (three playoffs wins, two Memorial wins, and a win vs a Rahm-led field at the Zozo in 2020), so I’m not sure waiting for him to make a start in Detroit or something (where he’d be +800 anyway) is a great staking plan.

Cantlay only managed a T31 last week, but his last four events include two top-5 finishes and he’s gained 3.0+ strokes on approach in each of his last three starts. His record on Pete Dye courses also includes runner-up finishes at Hilton Head and TPC Stadium so, on top of playing well of late, he’s also well overdue to make some noise at Sawgrass.

I don’t think +3000 is terrible at all given we also get teh top-8 backing.

Sepp Straka

• +4500 Each Way Top 8/+8000 Each Way Top 3 (bet365)

Straka was the first name I bet this week. His odds from open have already dropped at most books, although if you look hard enough you’ll probably be able to find a +4000 to +5000 outright number out there somewhere.

While some top players are still in the process of peaking for April Straka already looks like he’s achieved his final form. Top 15 finishes (and a win) in five of six starts with laser-like iron play in most of them, set him up perfectly for a run at Sawgrass—a venue where he finished T9 in his second go around the course in 2022.

Not much else needs to be said about the Austrian who looks primed for a big week.

Others: I took early pieces of Aaron Rai at +7500 on an each-way to top-8 and Nick Taylor at +10000 in the same market. Rai is down to +5000 or lower now so while I do like his lead-in it’s just too easy to get up to players like Michael Kim or down to someone like Cantlay at this point. I still like Taylor at his prices and also think makes sense as a placing target for a top-20…

Bombs

I’m playing all of these guys on each-ways with top 8 and top 12 exposure.

Obviously, I am not expecting these jabronis to win, but their odds still look overly inflated to me—given the massive placement odds we can get. Remember this is an event where Anirban Lahiri, Lee Westwood, and 49-year-old Jim Furyk have all finished runner-up at some point over the past five iterations.

I could go back even further and cite top-five finishes from names like Rafa-Cabrera Bello and a completely out-of-form Ian Poulter as well…and let’s not forget Craig Perks either.

Victor Perez

• +14000 Top 12 Each-Way / +20000 Top 8 Each-Way (bet365)

Perez finished T18 at PGA National, an event where he gained big on the long game (+5.1 strokes approach and +2.1 OTT). He also finished T9 at the PLAYERS in 2021, his only other appearance.

No problem taking some big odds on the Frenchman who is striking it well and capable of putting together some big rounds.

Matti Schmid

• +14000 Top 12 Each-Way / +20000 Top 8 Each-Way

I mentioned Schmid above and I do like the way he is playing, and also the way he sets up for Sawgrass. The German also finished T18 at PGA National, where he gained on approach and big on the greens, and then followed that up with a T6 last week, which was achieved with a ballsy Sunday round.

T26 at Sawgrass last season.

Davis Riley

• +22500 Top 12 Each-Way / +35000 Top 8 Each-Way

• Top 20 +1000 / Top 40 +300

• FRL +18000 Each-Way Top 5

Riley also played well at PGA National and again last week in Puerto Rico. Unlike the first two players I mentioned, he’s also won the PGA before (twice actually) with his one solo win even coming on a somewhat comparable course to Sawgrass in Colonial.

Two missed cuts at Sawgrass in two attempts is partly why he’s 350-1 instead of 150-1 but he’s also had good performances at other Florida courses, including a playoff loss at Copperhead and a T8 at Bay Hill.

Players often need a few goes at Sawgrass before they are comfortable and given the improved confidence he’s been showing, I would not be shocked if he made a little noise again this week.

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