Let’s dive right into it.
The 2025 Open Championship will be played at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland this year. It was last played there in 2019 when Shane Lowry won by a whopping six strokes over everyone’s favorite runner-up Tommy Fleetwood.
Lowry shot a course record 63 that season in Round 3 and then just held on in the final round when the weather was dreadful and the average score was over par. It was a gutsy display of ball striking and savvy around the greens displayed by Lowry and an effort I think we’ll see replicated somewhat by the winner in 2025.
The leaderboard that season had many of the typical Links veterans that pop up at this major every season, but also had some American names we’re more used to seeing on US Open leaderboards.
Overall, Portrush is one of the longer links venues on the docket at over 7,300 yards for a par 71 and also has some elevation changes that make it very unique for a links venue. As noted by Mike Kim on Twitter, the rough this week will likely be a bigger factor than it was last week in Scotland and punish shorter and more off-line drives.
The fact that we had Fleetwood, Koepka, Finau, Rahm, Reed, and Hatton all in the top 12 back in 2019 also makes Portrush seem more like a US Open style of course, than some of the more quirky links venues we sometimes get at the Open, like St. Andrews or Hoylake, where leaderboards can be much more volatile.
I guess this is my way of saying that I think this Open may be just a little more predictable than past Opens, and the winner should be someone whose ball-striking and tee-to-green game are in great shape heading into the week. I’ll be a little shocked if we get a real outside winner, although with the weather being volatile, anything is possible.
Lowry himself was in solid form that season, having gained on approach and off the tee in his final three PGA warmup events. He didn’t play in Scotland the week prior but managed a T8 at the PGA and a T2 in Canada in May and June.
In short, he wasn’t far off and certainly built up some form over the summer to where he climaxed at Portrush in July.
I’m not as focused on results necessarily (although I do want to see some major form), but the ball-striking and solid tee-to-green play throughout the summer should be a key indicator again this season.
2025 Open Championship Preview and Bets
Jon Rahm +1300 outright
Rahm started the week double Rory in price, and even though the gap is starting to close, it’s not closed enough in my opinion. As much as McIlroy remains the sentimental favorite this week, Rahm has had the better summer lead-in for me and should be getting more respect for it.
His T8 at the PGA could have easily been a solo 2nd if not for an overly aggressive game plan down the stretch (which was entirely warranted given who he was chasing), and his T7 at the US Open saw him tear the cover off the ball, gaining over 11.0 strokes ball-striking for the week. Rahm has played a lot of links golf and won the Irish Open back in 2019, so it’s not hard to see him finally finding some positive regression with the putter this week.
I’m also of the opinion that as we get later and later in the season, the advantage the PGA players have over the LIV players at these majors dwindles. We saw it in 2023 with Brooks Koepka, who nearly got over the hump at Augusta, but then used being in the heat of competition there to get the win at the PGA the next month. Bryson accomplished the same feat in 2024 at the PGA (2nd) and the US Open (win).
Now, it feels like it’s Rahm’s turn to use being in the heat of competition in those earlier majors of 2025 to his advantage this week. With a longer links venue on tap that will demand a big variety of shots and put more emphasis on off the tee, and tee to green play, than other Open venues, I don’t see any season not to be bullish on Rahm at his current number.
Viktor Hovland +4000 Each-Way Top 3
It’ll be interesting to watch the Hovland/Aberg/Spieth trio the first couple of days of the event. Spieth is a veteran of this event who almost always finds a way to bust out a decent finishing place at this major, while Aberg and Hovland are two of the most popular young talents on the PGA.
I’ll have some exposure to both, with Aberg top 20 at +115 being a great price and great way to get some easy exposure to the Swede. However, if we’re looking at trends and prices, I lean slightly towards putting money on an each-way to Hovland.
On top of a great approach game and loads of great results at coastal courses, he’s also shown an improved short game of late and has shown good progression throughout the summer, both in the majors and in regular events. He’s eerily similar to Lowry in that sort of way, and the fact that he shook off the rust in Scotland last week with a T8, after his Travelers withdrawal, is a great sign.
Three top 13 finishes in the Open already, with a T4 at St. Andrews, is also a sign that this is the major where we should be loading up most regularly on the Norwegian.
Patrick Reed +7500 Each-Way Top 8
People don’t like Patrick Reed. People don’t like to bet on Patrick Reed. That’s fine and all, but Patrick Reed is not 3x less likely to win this week than Tyrrell Hatton. He’s not 2x less likely to win than Sepp Straka, and he definitely should not be longer in odds than 40+ year olds like Scott and Rose.
I’m not making some weird Patrick Reed defense, I’m just looking at accomplishments, trends, and stats, and, of course, prices. Reed is a major winner who has multiple top 20 finishes at the Open and was T10 at Portrush in 2019. At age 34, he’s right in the prime wheelhouse for players at this event, and with his 3rd place at the Masters in April, he also slots into another trend for recent Open winners.
On top of all those converging trends, he’s also just played very good golf this year. At Augusta, he was second in tee to green stats for the week, and his recent win in Dallas on LIV came on another lengthy course.
With the most recent windfinder forecast favoring the early/late wave, Reed also has an advantageous tee time (early Thursday), which makes him one of my favorite values on the board for each-way and top 10/20 bets.
Si Woo Kim WITHOUT Rahm/Rory/Scheffler — +9000 Each Way Top 5
I’m taking a pure flyer this week on Si Woo Kim, who continues to tear the cover off the ball. After gaining 9.0 strokes tee to green at the John Deere, where he finished T11 and lost over 3.0 strokes putting, he followed that up with a T34 at the Scottish, where he was worse with the putter (-4.7 strokes putting), but gained 9.0 strokes ball-striking (8.4 approach and 1.6 OTT).
The putter remains a massive liability, but I’m not sure how you can look away from these prices given how well he’s hitting it and the demanding style of course we have coming up, where someone striking the ball like Si Woo will stand to benefit.
Kim has already shown some major form as well, posting a T8 at the long Quail Hollow, and he did finish T15 at the Open just three years ago at the Old Course.
Seeing him win would be a shock, but I thought he made for a great each-way play in the “without markets”, where his ball-striking could have him hang around the top of the leaderboard come Sunday if the conditions are tough.
Barracuda Championship Bets
Doug Ghim 40-1 Each Way Top 8 / 75-1 Each Way Top 3
I have one early play for the Barracuda I like. Ghim’s a player I’ve always fancied, given his solid collegiate background and his ability to get so hot with his irons. He’s also coming off a week of rest and played great in his last two events.
He did falter somewhat down the stretch at the Deere, where he led after Round 1, but finished in T31, and gained 9.7 strokes ball-striking for the week. He simply lost his feel on the greens on Sunday and ended an ugly -6.0 strokes putting.
Putting may not be as big a problem this week at the Barracuda, where the Stableford Scoring system encourages aggressiveness and often can free up players like Ghim. The event has seen some funky winners but also has a list of prime ball strikers on its recent winners list, including Collin Morikawa, Chez Reavie, and Erik van Rooyen.
I wouldn’t call Ghim a west coast specialist, but his best finish on the PGA (T2 Shriners) came not far from Tahoe at the Shriners and TPC Summerlin (also played at altitude). He’s also managed Top 15 finishes at Torrey Pines and Silverado.
Overall, I think Ghim is a pretty classy player, and given the form, his price seemed too big in this weak field.
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